BRITISH POUND
The expectation that the Fed will slow down its easing cycle this year has provided support for the US Dollar against the British Pound (GBP). According to the latest forecasts, Fed officials now expect only two rate cuts in 2025, lower than the four cuts predicted in September.
In contrast, a slight increase in expectations for a more dovish stance by the Bank of England (BoE) this year has put downward pressure on the Cable pair. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that a "gradual" rate cut approach remains appropriate, dismissing market expectations of fewer rate cuts in the coming year. Additionally, Bailey warned that uncertainties related to geopolitical risks and trade policies—especially with the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House—could put further pressure on the UK economy, which is already showing signs of slowing growth, weakening the British Pound
GBPUSD (Daily): The 50-period and 200-period moving averages have crossed and are positioned above the price line, confirming a strong bearish trend in the medium term. The price is showing signs of testing the 1.25000 zone, which presents a suitable opportunity to take a short position.
BITCOIN
Bitcoin is emerging as a reliable risk hedge in the face of financial market instability, supported by strong backing from ETF funds with a total of $105 billion in assets under management. These funds help mitigate the impact of short-term volatility and strengthen Bitcoin’s position.
Investor optimism is also reflected in the perpetual futures market, with the funding rate at 1.3% per month, the highest in the past two weeks, yet still within neutral levels. This indicates short sellers' caution as Bitcoin remains below $95,000, while reinforcing expectations for a bullish trend.
Overall, despite selling pressure and political instability, Bitcoin maintains a solid fundamental foundation. The combination of positive indicators from the derivatives market and ETF fund support creates a strong growth outlook in the medium term.
BTCUSD (Daily). Bitcoin has established a solid support level at 92,500 and is testing the psychological resistance at 98,500. Wait for a tight consolidation setup before the price breaks above the 98,500 resistance to place a perfect long position targeting the next resistance at 102,500.
AMAZON
Wolfe Research has raised Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) price target from $250 to $270 while maintaining its "Outperform" rating. The research firm highlights Amazon’s growth potential, with a market capitalization of $2.32 trillion.
Additionally, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is expected to continue strong growth driven by AI demand, the Trainium chip, and developments in Anthropic.
The company is also expected to strengthen its e-commerce market share due to its fast delivery capabilities and extensive product range, a significant competitive advantage.
AMZN (Daily). After a correction around the 220.00 resistance zone, Amazon’s stock shows signs of accumulation before breaking out of the setup BB (Block Break) at 230.00. Consider a buy position once the breakout occurs above this setup.
Fullerton Markets Research Team
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